RIO DE JANEIRO (AP) โ Brazilโs presidential election Sunday is being contested by 11 candidates but only two stand a chance of reaching a runoff: former President Luiz Inรกcio Lula da Silva and incumbent Jair Bolsonaro.
Both are political titans, and eight of 10 Brazilians will vote for one of them, according to pollster Datafolha. That leaves little space for challengers and means that in lieu of fresh proposals and detailed programs, the two frontrunners have mostly harped on their experience and railed against each other.
โBoth candidates are very well known, the vote is very crystallized,โ said Nara Pavรฃo, who teaches political science at the Federal University of Pernambuco, adding that most voters made up their minds long ago.

Sundayโs election could signal the return of the worldโs fourth–largest democracy to a leftist government after four years of far–right politics led by a president criticized for challenging democratic institutions, his handling of the COVID–19 pandemic that killed nearly 700,000 people and an economic recovery that has yet to be felt by the poor.
Polls show da Silva with a commanding lead that could possibly even give him a first–round victory without any need for a runoff.
But even if that doesnโt happen, the vote itself marks an improbable political comeback for da Silva, a 76–year–old former metalworker who rose from poverty to the presidency โ then just four years ago was jailed as part of a massive corruption investigation that targeted his Workersโ Party and upended Brazilian politics.ย Da Silvaโs conviction for corruption and money laundering sidelined him from the 2018 race that polls showed him leading, and allowed Bolsonaro โ then a fringe, far–right lawmaker โ to cruise to victory.
A year later, however, the Supreme Court annulled da Silvaโs convictions amid accusations the judge and prosecutors manipulated the case against him, which has allowed him to run again now.ย In many ways, Sundayโs vote is the race that should have been in 2018. And many voters are acutely aware of that.ย Among them is Antรดnio dos Santos, who voted for Bolsonaro in 2018 but will cast his ballot for da Silva this time.

โWhat Iโm most upset about is when the pandemic started, (Bolsonaro) seemed to be taking it as a joke,โ said dos Santos, a 55 year–old hairdresser who lives in the working–class Rio neighborhood of Rocinha. โChildren dying, women losing their husbands. Heโs not the man I thought he was.โ
โWhat matters to me is to see Brazil doing well, everyone working, everyone eating,โ he said.ย Throughout his campaign, da Silva has sought to remind working class voters like dos Santos that his 2003–2010 presidency was marked by social advancement propelled by a massive social welfare program that helped lift tens of millions into the middle class.
That isnโt what Bolsonaro, who frequently refers to da Silva as a โthiefโ and an โex–jailbird,โ wants voters to remember.ย A former army captain, he campaigned in 2018 on an anti–corruption platform while defending a show–no–mercy approach to crimefighting, traditional family values and national pride. His 2018 slogan โ โBrazil above all, God above everyoneโ โ is back this year.
But this time around Bolsonaroโs campaign has met fresh headwinds, in part due to his COVID–19 policies that a Senate investigation said warranted criminal charges to hold him responsible for Brazilโs 685,000 pandemic deaths.
Women in particular have turned their backs on him. Many were dismayed by his apparent lack of empathy during the pandemic as he spurned vaccines and largely ignored their plight as the primary caretakers of children and the elderly while Brazil was ravaged by the virus.
โBolsonaro was already rejected by women in 2018, but it got worse,โ said Carolina Botelho, a researcher with the Institute of Social and Political Studies at the State University of Rio de Janeiro.
In that demographic, da Silva still enjoys a 20–point lead over Bolsonaro, who has sought to improve his standing among women and others by highlighting his administrationโs generous pandemic welfare program.
But tough times remain. As elsewhere in the world, Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine stoked inflation and food insecurity in Latin Americaโs largest nation. Bolsonaro has softened the blow by lowering taxes on fuel and supporting Congressโ push to extend and increase welfare payments for millions of struggling Brazilians.
Da Silva has denounced the latter measure as a temporary fix, given it ends in December. He promises to fight hunger and poverty the way he did during his presidency, through his globally acclaimed Zero Hunger strategy. His pick for running mate, Geraldo Alckmin, a center–right former rival, was a nod to financial markets โ more recently bolstered by an endorsement from a former central bank governor who highlighted sound macroeconomic policy in a previous da Silva administration.
Bolsonaroโs four years in office have also been marred by the Amazon rainforestโs worst deforestation in 15 years.
But no single Bolsonaro claim has driven moderates to rally around da Silva like the current presidentโs insistence that Brazilโs electronic voting system is prone to fraud. His claim, for which he has presented no evidence, has raised concerns that he could reject election results and attempt to cling to power.
Earlier this month, Bolsonaro said in an interview that if he doesnโt win Sundayโs first round, โsomething abnormal has happened within the electoral court.โ
Bolsonaro has even accused top members of the electoral authority, who are also Supreme Court justices, of working against him. Such comments fuel a sense among Bolsonaroโs avid supporters that the race is rigged, reflected in comments online and with political violence increasingly spilling into real life.
โBolsonaro is seen as a threat beyond political divergencies, but also to democracy and institutions,โ said Mรกrio Braga, political analyst at Control Risks, adding that it helps explain why da Silva has garnered a bevy of endorsements.
Among the few demographics where Bolsonaro is polling in front are evangelical Christians, who represent nearly a third of the population. Evangelicals helped carry him to power in 2018, and he proceeded to tap members of their churches for important ministries and for a Supreme Court nomination.
Bolsonaro has shored up their support this time around with a campaign to portray the nation as spiritually ill and arguing only he can safeguard the Christian faith. His targeting of da Silva includes linking him to the countryโs Afro–Brazilian faiths.
Bolsonaro and his supporters have argued this yearโs polls underestimate the far–right leaderโs popularity.
โThe ideas of the right have always been ours: family, religion, education, sexual boundaries. โฆ We are conservative,โ said Marรญa do Carmo, who will vote for Bolsonaro again on Sunday. Echoing many other Bolsonaro backers, do Carmo added that she mistrusted polls and the countryโs electronic voting machines.