**Disturbance 1: 20% Chance of Cyclone Formation in 48 Hours**
As of 2:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2024…
Near the Northern Leeward Islands (AL94):
Satellite-derived wind data from several hours ago indicate that a small area of low pressure located less than one hundred miles east of the northern Leeward Islands has degenerated into a surface trough. Environmental conditions, including the proximity of dry air, do not favor development of this system while it moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible across the northern Leeward Islands today.
– *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20 percent.*
– *Formation chance through 7 days…low…20 percent.*
