THE ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE IS CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM NEAR THE AREA. THEREFORE, A TROPICAL ALERT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT MEANS THAT, A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO FORM IN OUR MONITORED AREA, BUT A WATCH OR WARNING IS NOT REQUIRED, AT THIS TIME.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY AND SIZE, IF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 DEVELOPS INTO THE STORM IT IS STILL IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT WHAT EXACTLY WILL BECOME OF THE SYSTEM, AT THIS TIME.
NOTWITHSTANDING, AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 POSES AN ELEVATED THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIMITED IMPACTS FROM NEAR STORM FORCE WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MINOR FLOODING, WHICH COULD RESULT IN LIFE THREATENING CONDITIONS, SOME DISRUPTION TO DAILY LIFE AND MINOR DAMAGE TO INFRUSTRUCTURE.
AT 11AM ECT OR 1500Z TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 IS LOCATED ABOUT 330 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND MOVING TOWARDS THE WEST- NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. A NORTHERN TURN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE NEXT 24HRS, WHICH COULD BRING THE SYSTEM NEAR TO THE NORTH EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE LIKELY. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO A TROPICAL STORM IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE DISTURBANCE IS NEAR THE ISLANDS; HENCE, A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED.
ALL RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL94 CLOSELY AND HAVE THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS PREPARED, IN THE EVENT THAT QUICK ACTION IS REQUIRED TO SAFEGUARD, LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD.
