A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA IN 48 HOURS. A WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AL 95 IS NOW POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN. THERE ARE STILL INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES; HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.
AT THE REASONABLE WORST-CASE, THE SYSTEM POSES A MODERATE THREAT, WITH THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM STORM-FORCE-WINDS, HIGH SEAS AND MODERATE FLOODING, RESULTING IN LIFE-THREATENING CONDITIONS, DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE AND DAMAGE TO INFRASTRUCTURE. TO BE SAFE, START TO IMPLEMENT YOUR HURRICANE SEASON DISASTER PLANS FOR A STRONG TROPICAL STORM.
AT 11 AM ECT OR 1500Z THE CENTRE OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.3 WEST OR ABOUT 835 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA AND MOVING WEST AT 21 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AND TROPICAL STORM BY SATURDAY. FORMATION CHANCE TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS 80 PERCENT OR HIGH, THROUGH 48 HOURS.
ON ITS FORECAST TRACK, THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY AFFECT ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. AT THIS TIME, IT IS MOSTLY LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM WHEN IT REACHES THE ISLANDS; HOWEVER, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO IMPACT THE AREA AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM. NOTWITHSTANDING, THERE IS STILL ENOUGH TIME FOR IT TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND SPARE THE ISLANDS THE WORST OF ITS WEATHER.
RESIDENTS SHOULD START TO IMPLEMENT THEIR HURRICANE SEASON PLANS FOR POTENTIALLY A STRONG TROPICAL STORM TO SAFEGUARD LIFE, PROPERTY AND LIVELIHOOD, IN THE EVENT A WARNING IS ISSUED, BY EARLY TOMORROW.
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE AROUND 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON OR SOONER, IF REQUIRED.
FORECASTER
JALEEL JACOBS/LORNE SALMON
