BBC – Boris Johnson will hold a news conference later as the government considers a new month-long lockdown across England.
The hope is that stricter measures could then be eased by Christmas.It comes as documents seen by the BBC suggest the UK is on course for a much higher death toll than during the first wave unless further restrictions are introduced.
Deaths could reach more than 4,000 a day, one of the models suggests. That figure is based on no policies being brought in to slow the spread of the disease, but most of the models peak at about 2,000 a day.
The prime minister will be joined by England’s chief medical officer Chris Whitty and the government’s chief scientific adviser Sir Patrick Vallance for the briefing, following a cabinet meeting to discuss the government’s coronavirus response.
The news conference was originally scheduled for 16:00 GMT but is now due to take place an hour later at 17:00. It is expected schools, colleges and universities would stay open under any new “stay at home” order. It feels like history is repeating itself.
In March, the government was trying to slow rather than stop the virus. Then modelling said huge numbers of people would die and we ended up in lockdown.A key difference this time is the government’s science advisers called for a circuit-breaker six weeks ago.
The price of delay is cases are higher and we have missed the boat for doing it at the same time as school holidays for extra impact. It means we may have to lockdown for longer.The spring lockdown did bring cases down. A lockdown now would be expected to do the same.
There is an ambition to keep schools open, but there are growing doubts about secondaries where Covid cases are “increasing steeply”.
Deaths will continue to rise throughout a suggested November lockdown, but the hope is driving levels of the virus low enough would allow the struggling NHS Test and Trace programme to become effective again.
The driving motivation here is saving lives and not overwhelming the NHS. There is no guarantee it will deliver a normal Christmas, too.
Mr Johnson has so far resisted pressure to introduce nationwide restrictions, opting instead for a three-tiered system targeting local areas in England.
Elsewhere in the UK, Wales remains under a 17-day “firebreak” lockdown until 9 November, and Scotland’s new tiered system of restrictions will come into force at 06:00 on Monday.
In Northern Ireland, pubs and restaurants were closed for four weeks on 16 October with the exception of takeaways and deliveries. Schools were closed for two weeks.
Wales’ First Minister Mark Drakeford has said any announcement made by Mr Johnson will only relate to England, and that his cabinet will meet on Sunday to “discuss any potential border issues for Wales in light of any announcement by No 10”.
Meanwhile, Scotland’s First Minister Nicola Sturgeon has issued new advice that people should not travel to or from England, except for essential purposes.
Infection rates are also soaring across much of Europe, prompting new forms of lockdown in Belgium, France and Germany.
